Wednesday, February 25, 2009

One person's view of this economy

As we all try and understand the financial dilemma we are in and exactly what it means to us individually, there are mostly dire predictions. Everything from total insurrection to 25% unemployment, to the military being called out to restrict our movements, to a small cadre that will rule the world from some hidden location. I go back and forth like a ping pong ball, right brain, left-brain and back again. I have thought that perhaps I needed to ask my son to return to me my old shotgun and rifle maybe for protection from those looters, and maybe to shoot some food. Then again I decide on a more positive approach, reminding myself that the huge losses we have experiences are not lost as long as we have not sold anything and that yes, we will probably have enough to eat. At my age, there is not much I would buy, as there is just not much I want, remembering that most of my life has already passed.

If you are reading this waiting for some great point, you may wish to stop here because I do not have one, but here is what I offer and maybe thinking this out, will help me see things clearer and hopefully you. This is a brief story of what I have seen and experienced over the last 60 years.

I was born in 1942 to an old Southern family that did not have much money but still retained some of the semblance of the “grand old South”. My father had spent most of his inheritance but we still had a summer place, a boat, and hunting camp. By the time of my teens in the 50’s there was not much money at all, and as my friends parents built homes, we remained in a rental home. I was not a very good student but I did manage to get a university degree, married at 21 and started my adult life. I opened a real estate office in 1965 and the year before the largest employer in the area, a military base was closed. There was never a worse time, as the total population was only around 200 thousand and the base employed 18,000. There were businesses closing, foreclosed homes everywhere, banks unwilling to lend and a general malaise. The first positive step I took was to learn about foreclosures and how they could be sold. In those days, most loans were either FHA or VA and both institutions were willing to finance for a small amount down. Some sellers were so anxious to avoid foreclosure they would sell their home by the buyer simply taking over the mortgage. Over the next few years I bought 4 or 5 of these homes, rented them for enough to cover the mortgage and sold them years later at a nice profit.

Gradually as the economy improved over the next few years, I expanded the business to include construction and development of lots. By the late 70’s life was good and I owned a yacht, built a new home for my family, traveled and enjoyed the “good life”. Then in 1979, in a down economy, we were hit with a major hurricane that devastated the industry. Interest rates went to 22%, no one was buying homes, and I was stuck with 30 completed homes. To add fuel to the fire, my wife of 16 years and I got divorced. The private school tuition, maintaining 2 residences, alimony and child support, along with the banks and I was dead. Beat, broke and bankrupt. I left the area, after finding that no one wanted to hire a broke developer and went to another state to try and start over. It did not work out. I left there and took a job as a boat captain running a sport fishing yacht. I had been president of the local big game fish club and had a reputation for catching fish, but to go from boat owner to boat Capitan, a paid hand working for a bunch of rednecks just did not work. I was married again and my new wife got a job with a time-share development and they needed a real estate broker. I had kept my license and took the job. It paid $500 a month-----not much, even in 1982 but it did pay the rent. Shortly after that, my wife and I started selling and we quickly started making money. Since we were broke, it was a lot of money because when you are broke it is hard to take on new debt and the money goes further. By that time the development we were working for got into to trouble and it was time for a change. Over the next few years we opened a real estate office, developed a condominium, bought a beautiful sailing yacht and life was good. At least before my wife decided that it was not the life for her. I finished the condo, made nothing, say good-bye and went sailing. I left with a debt free boat and $6000 hidden under my bunk. I sailed for a year or so, during which time I worked on a charter boat for $20 a day plus tips. I returned with $2000 to my old stomping ground and took a job as a bartender. Five dollars and hour plus tips, free food and 2 shift drinks, and live aboard my boat.

A boat friend had delivered a yacht from Bali to Darwin and told me about Indonesia. Sixteen thousand islands some that had never really been explored. What the hell I thought, I’ve quit better jobs than this so why not go. By then I had the $6000 back again and so for the next 6 months I traveled from Lombok Island in Indonesia all the way to Thailand. Busses, ped cabs, ferries, and foot I saw the countries. Like all things, those times come to an end, usually as funds get low but it was time to return. Shortly after returning a family member asked me what I had seen and the birth of a new idea came forward. He would put up the money and I would return and buy a container of furniture. Why not I thought, so after being home only two months I was back on the road. We had not a clue whom we would sell the stuff to but one thing led to the other and I finally opened a small store. Retail jail it is called and for a fellow that had been sailing and roaming around the world, it was not exactly what I was looking for but I have always had a rule and that is you do what you have to. The store found a niche and we did well. I say “we” because a friend that was helping me get started turned into wife 3. Do you know the feeling of, “I know this is a mistake but I am doing it anyway”? That was marriage 3. It was not the best time in my life and when I had to buy back what I had given when we were married------well just another lesson.

One of my favorite movies is Jeremiah Johnson staring Robert Redford and Will Geer. Redford is the new mountain man and Geer is the old grizzly bear hunter. At the very end of the movie, Redford has survived by the skin of his teeth and they meet high in the mountains in winter. Snow all around cold, and Geer finds Redford spitting a rabbit and Geer says, “you’ve come far pilgrim, were it worth it”? “It weren’t nothing, I hardly noticed”. I guess all old men look at life a bit that way, as when most of your life is behind you, it seems that you have come a long way-----and for me, “it weren’t nothing”. If I had not come the path I have, I would not be with the wife I now belong to. That has no value----it is priceless. Have I made mistakes? If you have come this far with this tale you already have that information. I think the point is, I am still here and after we get to wherever this economic tsunami leads us, I will be there. The most important thing in my life is my wife, followed by children and grandchildren and their health. Right brain whispers to me and asks if I remember the old Sadu in Nepal who had only a staff and bowl. There was something very powerful about him, yet he had nothing but the wisdom he had gained traveling his path in life. I remember the high priest in Bali, sitting and mostly smiling as I spoke no Balinese and only a small amount of Indonesian. My Balinese friend told me that I was very honored, as the old man had many each day that came to him and that very morning as I waited, a writer for a western magazine had left in a huff because he had to wait. The old priest told my friend that when the writer returned he did not want to see him as he was too arrogant but that I had silently waited and he would like to meet me. Right brain asks what that is worth in money and I have no answer.
None of us know where the road leads us and certainly this is a hard time, but in the end we simply die and it all begins again or whatever your belief system tells you. I am reminded of what St. Paul said when asked what he would do if the world were to end tomorrow. “Hoe my garden” was the reply.

Saturday, February 14, 2009

It is no time to give up

Alexandra Pelosi was on The Rachel Maddow show Fri. night, talking about her soon to be broadcast documentary on the recent presidential race. She attended a number of McCain/Palin rallies, filming and interviewing the people that came to see the Republican ticket. There was lots of anger, shouting, and even a fight leading Pelosi to make the statement that there really are two parallel Americas trying to exist as one. I understand completely the point she was making but like Maddow, I simply disagree. As the President has stated over and over, “we are not just a red America or blue America but one America”. We are conservatives, liberals, gays, straights, Latinos, African Americans, as well as Africans, white, red, yellow, and brown. We are laborers, professionals, too many religions to list, poor, rich, and yet we are all Americans. Somehow, we have got to put that at the top of the list, and party affiliations, regional differences, religious differences, must remain secondary to our national heritage. Those that have been called to military service, be it WWI or Iraq, did so to defend not a religious belief but rather the ideal of what it means to be an American. For the first time in many years, the night Barack Obama was elected as our president I had the overwhelming feeling of pride. After 8 years of lies, deceit, our Constitution being trashed, the people spoke loud and clear and said no more. But, as the president said that very night, 48 % did not vote for him but that he would be their president also and would work to earn their vote.

If we look at some of the most divisive issues, abortion, and marriage rights, Pelosi’s point of two Americas seems to fit and therein lays the problem. It is the absolute certainty that each side believes they are right and the other side is wrong. So, how do we get from here to there? Perhaps a beginning would be to remind each of us, that country must be put first. That is, our personal beliefs must be subjugated for the whole and the whole is our country. As the pastor TD Jakes said, we are not a Christian nation as we have Jews, Moslems, Buddhists, Hindus, and non-believers, along with Christians. Our Constitution guarantees us that we can worship and hold any belief system that we want and it also protects those that have no belief system. We can argue, disagree, shout, go to court, vote, write letters, and demonstrate but in the end, we must remember that first is the fact that we are all Americans. We make mistakes as a nation, and we make mistakes as individuals but we are capable of learning as a nation, as well as individuals. This is the strength of our country.
There are those that say, “the end is near”, there is nothing left but doom and I reject that. There are those that say our new President is simply a pawn for a powerful few and I reject that. Like Lincoln, who came at a time when the nation was in peril of breaking apart, Barack H. Obama has come at a similar time. This unlikely man, child of a single mother, raised in part by grandparents, not really knowing a father, has become President of the United States. A few short years ago he was un-known and today he is one of the most recognized faces in the world. We face some very hard times ahead, perhaps in its own way, just as hard as Lincoln faced but I cannot think of a single leader that I would rather have at the helm of the ship of state. “I know Mr. President there will be mistakes made because you have already told us so. You have also said that you and we, will learn form those mistakes and we will carry on. I may disagree with some of your decisions and I will feel free to let you know but I will not lose confidence in you.” I think you are a man of unique ability, generous in spirit, perhaps the most eloquent speaker in our history and maybe, most importantly a man of good heart. I know you will do everything within your power to lead us out of this dark place, back to America at it’s best. You said recently regarding the stimulus bill, “Do not let seeking perfection stand in the way of the essential” and I believe that also applies to other issues. Perfection is always a lofty goal, but one that fails in the job because of seeking perfection, serves nothing but their own ego. My pledge to you and my fellow Americans is I will do everything in my power to examine all sides of the issues, to remember there is always another side, to speak clearly and civilly, and remember, “Yes we can”.

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Are Republicans being obstructionist?

What do Republicans hope to gain with obstructionism? I called multiple times the senate offices of Shelby, Sessions, McCain, and Kyl today, and all phone lines and mailboxes were full. I particularly wanted to reach Shelby, as he had also voted against Eric Holder and had stated yesterday that, “the man on the street was against the stimulus bill”. When asked what he offered in the bill’s place, he avoided the question, obviously because he had nothing to offer. The Republican Party is in shambles; McCain/Palin was a disaster, Joe the plumber, and now the election of a black man to head the party, when the base of the Republican Party is in the South where they are still fighting the Civil War. You don’t believe that? Just today I was talking to a man from Memphis who took the old “states rights line” that says the Civil war, or as the last generation called it, “the war of northern aggression”, was not about slavery but states rights. I heard the same thing at the University of Alabama in 1962 when George Wallace stood in the door and defied the federal troops. Look back at the states that McCain heavily carried and you are now looking at the base.

Knowing how much people in Alabama disliked the election of our first African American President, Shelby and Sessions feel safe in voting against the stimulus bill, calling it a disaster in spending tax payer money; yet in the Mobile Press-Register the school board stated that without federal bailout funds there would be schools closed, teachers fired, and the usual reduction in spending that schools across the country are now experiencing. Mobile has hoped and the contract was actually awarded to EADS, for the air force tanker contract that, is now being re-evaluated due to Boeing’s charge of “foul”. Both Shelby and Sessions strongly support this contract, and although they both have damned wasteful federal spending, of course this is not wasteful spending. I wanted to ask my two senators where they were, when only 8 years ago we had the largest surplus in history, only to be left with the largest deficit. Both senators supported Bush/Cheney on Iraq, tax cuts, and of course Justice Roberts and Alito.

It is fairly clear neither senator, along with McCain and the rest, have a clue what to do or where to go but their only chance to remain in any sort of leadership spot light, is to simply be against anything the Administration wants to do. Regardless of how bad our economy is, regardless of job lost, foreclosed homes, two wars Republicans have decided their own political ambitions are more important than the welfare of the country. With the election of Barack Obama, the voters showed both parties that their vicious, selfish hold on the American People could be broken. It is time that the voters “cleaned house” of both Democrats and Republicans that have gone to Washington as a public servants, only to build a dynasty that it’s only aim is, to keep themselves in power and offer some effort on behalf of their largest contributors.
The president has just finished his first news conference and is receiving high marks from the pundits. Ed Rollins, Republican consultant made a very good point about the Republicans, in that after the 8 failed years of the Bush Administration the Republicans are returning to their roots of conservatism. The only problem with that is, they are a trillion short and a trillion late and the issue at hand is how do we avoid another Great Depression. It is not rocket science to see that a great majority of the American people believes] that the President is their best hope and Congress offers nothing. The Republican Party bears the brand of Bush/Cheney and until they can convince the voter that they represent something different, they will become even less of the minority

Monday, February 2, 2009

HELP

I started this blog for the purpose of putting into words, some of the thoughts I have about politics and other events I find interesting. I had also thought it a good way for me to communicate with my friends that are spread across the globe, some of which I rarely see in person but still keep in touch with. I also write a good bit on OPEDNEWS, a web based news sight that has both professionals, as well as people like myself and there is at times, a lot of “back and forth”. OEN, as we refer to it, gives me all the time and interaction I need and therefore I have to remember my blog, which when I think about, I “cross post” some things. But, I get no reader response at all on ginsmill and just wonder if anyone reads it at all. Therefore, I am asking anyone that does read anything, please send me email at arnold_gin@yahoo.com and tell me what you think. If I had found OEN before I created this blog------I probably would not have ever created it. But, it did give me a chance to put in words some of my thoughts and other than the signature line on my emails, I have none nothing to promote the blog. Anyway, should you stumble in------let me know.

Peace,gin

Can Obama's attempt to "reach accross the isle" work

Is President Obama’s attempt to “reach across the isle” a waste of time or will it pay off in the future? Like many, I was disappointed to see 100% of House Republicans vote against the proposed Stimulus Bill but not surprised. Conventional thinking is, that Republicans by voting no, will be in a better position to take back the Congress and the Whitehouse, should the stimulus fail. No one can say for sure exactly what needs to happen nor can anyone promise that the proposed stimulus will work but there is no argument that we are in the direst financial situation since the 1930’s. “The U.S. economy suffered its biggest slowdown in 26 years in the last three months of 2008”, so says Dean Baker, co-director of Center for Economic and Policy Research. From Krugman to Friedman to Feldstein, all agree that immediate action is necessary. How I ask, can Republicans in the face of all this economic disaster put their own political fortunes ahead of the welfare of the entire country? Does the big radio ape (I refuse to dignify anything by the use of his name) really speak for the Republican Party?

Republicans sent emails to reporters stating their objections to the Stimulus because it included: 50 million to the National Endowment for the Arts, 150 million to insure honey bee farmers, 335 million for preventing sexually transmitted diseases, 150 million for repairs to the Smithsonian Institution, 426 million for the CDC, 20 million to remove fish barriers in rivers, and 25 million to clear off-road trails. Republicans can certainly ask the question, “why would we support the arts” but believe it or not, as one of my artist friends told me years ago, art is the historical record of “who we are as a people”. Besides that, artist are amongst the lowest paid people in our society and funding the arts is a form of economic stimulation. If anyone has read a newspaper in the last year, the disappearance of honeybees has been of great concern across the country. Scientist are not certain of the cause but without bees, any 6th grade student knows that life cannot exist. Believe it or not Republicans, bees keep us alive. Of course we could ignore the Smithsonian--------that is probably one reason it is in need of repair-----but it is one of the largest tourist attractions in the country. Do we want it to fall down? The last time I checked, the CDC was the place that people turned to when they were scared to death of SARS, Ebola, new strains of Flu, or other threatening diseases. But lets just say, we don’t need art, the CDC, bees, and the rest; the total of this part of the stimulus is something like 0.149 of the 800 billion. So there you have it, the Republicans voted 100% against the bill because 0.149 of it went to things they did not like.

I, like many was unsure of the bank bailout and still remain so but I do not know, nor does anyone else what it would be like if we had not taken that action. In the same way, how can we argue against so many economists and their belief that something must be done to get the economy going again? It is easy to be a sideline pundit, pontificating this and that and I have been guilty many times but when the rubber hits the road, I would be a little shy it stating people like Krugman and Friedman are simply wrong in their economic opinions. My father was a physician and we argued about everything but when it came to medicine, I took his opinion. Republicans seem to think that the Stimulus just does not have enough tax cuts, yet Moody’s Economy has tracked stimulus spending and tax cuts for business’s put only .33 (cents) per dollar back in the economy, whereas expanding the food-stamp program puts into the economy a $1.73 for every dollar spent and expanding unemployment benefits puts $1.64. Of course one cannot object to feeding people and also support programs like this. I could remind Republicans that our President’s mother was once a recipient of food-stamps, but then again that might be the very reason for them to be against that “LIBERAL” program.

The only group that was rated lower than former President Bush was the Congress and it would seem Republicans are anxious to retain that position. But, as the President stated in his acceptance speech, 47% of the voters did not vote for him and therein lies a big part of the problem. Living in South Alabama I know many of this 47%-----my family for example and almost the entire congressional delegation. They are strong pro-lifers, supported Bush and his illegal war, want government to “stay out of things”, of course that does not include the plans to build air tankers in Mobile, and as much of the stimulus money they can get, and of course government help after hurricanes. Their mentality is, “government should stay the hell out of things--------unless we call on um”. Therefore, the elected officials must appeal to that voter or better yet, “be one of them”. Sen. Jeff Sessions is one such character. Sessions was born in Selma, Al. the sight of the famous 1965 Selma to Montgomery March and was later nominated by Reagan as a United States Attorney. In 1985 as U.S. Attorney he un-successfully prosecuted 3 civil rights workers for voter fraud. He spent hours interrogating black voters in predominantly black counties, where after 1.7 million votes cast produced only 14 allegedly tampered votes. The jury spent less than 4 hours before acquitting all three. In 1986 Reagan nominated Sessions for a federal judgeship but he lost when the Senate Judiciary Committee refused to let a vote come to the floor, reminding the committee of his remarks about the NAACP, KKK, and the ACLU. Sessions had previously stated that the KKK was not so bad; except he had learned they smoked pot. Sessions once labeled the ACLU and the NAACP as “un-American, and they forced civil rights down the throats of people”. He also called them “communist inspired”. In Oct. 2007 Time reported a lobbyist, Lamar Young told prosecutors that on May8, 2002 he paid thousands of dollars in apparently illegal contributions to big names in Alabama Republicans, including Sessions. Young was a key witness in the trial of former governor Don Siegelman that saw him convicted and sent to prison. Forty former state attorney generals, both Democrats and Republicans cited “irregularities”. Sessions supported Bush’s war 100%, opposed a bill by Sen. Specter that would allow Congress to file a law suit to get presidential signing statements declared unconstitutional, opposed Sen. McCain’s anti-torture amendment in 2006, 0 rating on the environment, and 100% vote with big oil. But, he was just re-elected by a landslide.
I know the President campaigned on “reaching across the isle” and I also know that is something the majority of the American people, including myself desperately want; But we must get the message across to both parties that we, the simple citizens are not going to take it anymore. The election of Barack Obama, if nothing else sent a message loud and clear, that the machines of both parties are still not stronger than a unified citizenry. We must also remember that 47% that voted for McCain, in my case, they are friends, and family and certainly not bad people. As the President moves our ship of state forward, he will need us all and if we are to survive, we had better all come forward.